This weekend is going to be a very interesting one at the box office. Last weekend was a bit of a cluster with some films doing above-expected business, and some resulting in probably some lost jobs and future projects up in the air. We have The Smurfs: The Lost Village, Going in Style, and The Case for Christ all opening in wide release this weekend, but I don’t expect any of them to set any April records. All right, let’s get crackin’ on these predictions.
So we have a very interesting battle for the number one spot this weekend: a new CG animated kids film vs a CG animated kids film that was just released last week. While the latter, The Boss Baby opened to above-expected numbers, Smurfs will be looking for that same family audience. And between these two, while the other two Smurfs movies from the last few years all did really well, I just don’t sense very much excitement around this new film. I’m actually going with Boss Baby retaining its top spot with a 45% drop off and a second weekend of $27.6 million. And in second place, I’m actually going with Beauty and the Beast. Sure, it’s in its fourth weekend, but I’m going with a 55% drop off and a total of $20.4 million, which I’m saying will also beat The Lost Village.
Now, for The Lost Village, sure, you have the voice talents of Demi Lovato, Rainn Wilson, Jack McBrayer, Joe Manganiello, Mandy Patinkin, Julia Roberts, Michelle Rodriguez, Ellie Kemper, Ariel Winter, Meghan Trainor, and a few others, but none of them are exactly big-time box office draws. Sure, tracking has it opening to $24 million, but I don’t see that happening, not when you have a half-assed marketing campaign, from what little I’ve seen, only 34% of critics recommending it on Rotten Tomatoes, and again a real lack of excitement around the film. I’m going below those numbers and saying $19 million. Playing in 3,602 theaters that would mean $5,275 is your per-theater average.
I think the other new release, Going in Style, a remake of the film of the same name from 1979, will make not much of an impact this weekend at the box office. The marketing has actually been the strongest of any of the three new wide releases, and the star-power is there, with Michael Caine, Morgan Freeman, Alan Arkin, Matt Dillon, Christopher Lloyd, Ann-Margret, and John Ortiz leading the cast. What’s not making me say it’ll do extremely well this weekend is two things: critics aren’t very kind to it, 25% so far on Rotten Tomatoes, and I can’t think of too many films of late that have had this old stars making a comeback comedy that have lit the box office on fire. Tracking has it at $12 million, and I’m actually going to agree with that, and stick with that number. With 3,000 theaters playing the film, $4000 even is the per-theater average.
In fifth place it’ll be close between Power Rangers and Ghost in the Shell. I’m going with Ghost in the Shell winning that, just because it is more recent, but falling 60% and hitting $7.4 million its second weekend. Ouch, especially for a film that was tracking for $32 million last weekend. As for the other new release, The Case for Christ, only 1,100 theaters will play it, there’s been zero marketing from what I’ve experienced, no critical reviews, but you do have Robert Forster and Faye Dunaway appearing the film, and honestly I just Wikipedia’d that and just found out, so I’m as shocked as I’m sure you are. Tracking is available, $2.2 million, but I think even that is bullish. I think the more faith-oriented audiences may even check out the more spotlighted Zookeeper’s Wife, which actually did pretty well last weekend and is expanding into a nearly wide release this weekend, so I’m going with $1.5 million. With 1,100 theaters, that means the per-theater-average would be $1,364.
Now for a look back at last weekend to see how well predicted the box office was. First place did not go to my predicted Beuaty and the Beast, which I set at $45.2 million, but instead to The Boss Baby with $50.1 million, which I had in second place earning $36 million. Beauty had to settle for second place and $45.4 million, which was almost 100% accurate with my predicted number, but I just didn’t anticipate that Boss Baby would bring in that kind of dough. Third place was correctly predicted, though, with Ghost in the Shell, but the number was way off. I had $33 million, and it only earned $18.6 million. Wow, that’s not good. Now for fourth place, another correct prediction for Power Rangers, but my number wasn’t even close. I had it only falling 40% and hitting $24.1 million, but in spite of the mostly positive word-of-mouth, it fell 64% and only managed $14.2 million. Again, not exactly numbers that make a studio excited for sequels. Then fifth place was also a correct prediction for Kong: Skull Island. It grossed $8.5 million, a bit higher than my $6.6 million prediction. I also had a $1 million prediction for The Zookeeper’s Wife, and despite only playing in 541 theaters, it landed in 10th place, but with a bigger number: $3.2 million. I guess I was really underestimating it. Anyways, this weekend will be another one where we could be looking at everything from the wrong angle, so I wouldn’t be too surprised if we come back next week and only a few of these predicts are anywhere remotely close to what actually happens at the box office.