It’s pretty rare to have two female-led summer blockbusters going head-to-head for the number one spot, and that’s the case this weekend. We have three new releases out this week, The Mummy (2017), It Comes at Night, and Megan Leavey. They’ll all go up against the holdover of Wonder Woman, among others, but it’s really down to two picks for what will take the top spot. Let’s get going.
This reminds me of earlier this year when we had Logan (2017) in its second weekend going up against Kong: Skull Island in its opening weekend. Those of us who try and predict the box office were all over the place. Some saw Logan as the clear winner, others said it would be close, and still others said Kong would win. Well, turning our attention to Wonder Woman, the DCEU so far has averaged a 67% drop off from week one to week two. That would put them at $34 ,million. I don’t think that’s the way its going to go down. From all the critical success and very positive audience reactions, we’re probably expecting a 50-55% drop off, but will that be enough for The Mummy to trample over? I’m gonna say yes. Even though back in the earlier example Kong: Skull Island was victorious, that movie seemed to have a lot more excitement around it than this latest version of The Mummy. My exact prediction is a 55% drop for Wonder Woman and a second weekend of $46.4 milliom.
So how will The Mummy do this weekend? Well, Universal is hoping this will successfully launch a shared cinematic universe of their classic monsters, and with the star power of the likes of Tom Cruise, Sofia Boutella, Annabelle Wallis, Jake Johnson, Courtney B. Vance, and Russell Crowe there’s a strong possibility the film is a big hit with a $50 million plus opening weekend. The marketing for the film has been very good, but the critic reviews are what could really prevent this from being that $50 million hit. Only 22% of critics on Rotten Tomatoes are recommending the movie at this time, and overall there is an atmosphere of “wait and see” with this one. I think those critical reviews will turn some off. Plus there is some confusion on what this Dark Universe will be. Tracking has it hitting $39 million. Again there is a possibility that come next week I’ll be coming back saying, “How could I have not picked The Mummy to win the weekend? It was so obvious!” For now, though, I’ll say it comes in at $43 million. 4,000 theaters will play the film, so we’re looking at $10,750 as the per-theater average.
Third place looks like it will go to the other wide release from last weekend, Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie. Since family audiences are a bit limited, I’m predicting a 40% drop and a second weekend of $14.3 million. I also have fourth place going to a holdover, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales. I see that one falling 60% and hitting $8.8 million for its third weekend. And finally in fifth place I have a new release, It Comes at Night. While most would think it’s an interesting choice to release two horror films on the same weekend, these two types of horror films are aiming at two totally different audiences. The Mummy is more of a thriller from what I’m getting with some action/adventures vibes, too, so that one will appeal to more of the masses than the straight up horror of It Comes at Night. Still, having Joel Edgerton, Carmen Ejogo and Riley Keough in your cast can’t hurt, and the marketing has been pretty good for A24’s standards. Also the film is being looked at positively by critics with 89% of them recommending it on Rotten Tomatoes. While I don’t think it’ll be the new Don’t Breathe (2016) which was fueled by largely positive reviews and more than double most estimates, they are tracking this one for $11.5 opening, but I’m saying $8 million. The theater count in only 2,500 so we’re looking at an average theater total of $3,200.
And for the other new release this weekend, Megan Leavey, obviously we’re looking at an opening outside the top five. There is a chance it comes close to It Comes at Night‘s total, though, with the star power of Kate Mara, Tom Felton, Common, Edie Falco, and Bradley Whitford in the cast. Plus the subject matter will be close to home for many. The advertisements for the film, though, have been pretty sparse. Only 1,000 theaters are playing, it, too, so that’s to consider. That all being said, though, the critics are liking it a lot with 87% of them giving it a positive review on Rotten Tomatoes, plus there are several free screenings for veterans that has made headlines, so that will very likely spread good word around like wildfire. Tracking has it coming in at $4 million, but I’ll go higher with $5.5 million. So unless It Comes at Night and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 don’t totally collapse, it will stay outside the top five. Still that means $5,500 is the per theater average.
Now we’ll run through the top five of last weekend and see how I did predicting. Wonder Woman was correctly predicted for the number one spot with $103.2 million, but I was much higher with $128 million. I was way low on Suicide Squad (2016) so I thought this would balance it out, but not this time. Second place was incorrectly predicted. Captain Underpants took that spot with $23.8 million. I had it in third with $29 million. My second place prediction, Pirates of the Caribbean was in third place with $22 million. I had it earning $31.4 million. Whoops. Now for fourth and fifth place, two more correct spots. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 hit $9.8 million, good enough for fourth with my prediction being $9.4 million so that was very close. And in fifth place came Baywatch with $8.7 million, which was higher than my $7.4 million prediction. So 3/5 isn’t too bad. Anyways we’ll see what happens this weekend, but hopefully it’ll be a close battle with everyone getting at least a decent share of the pie at the weekend box office.